These technologies [disruptive zero-carbon tech] still have to prove that they are reliable, durable and scalable — and if you Google both, you will find studies saying they are and studies that are skeptical. All I know is this: If we put a simple price on carbon, these new technologies would have a chance to blossom and thousands more would come out of innovators’ garages. America still has the best innovation culture in the world. But we need better policies to nurture it, better infrastructure to enable it and more open doors to bring others here to try it.
The story of how a couple of minor mistakes turned into a global discrediting campaign of the main international body for information on climate change science can be found here.
“To those familiar with the science and the IPCC’s work, the current media discussion is in large part simply absurd and surreal. Journalists who have never even peeked into the IPCC report are now outraged that one wrong number appears on page 493 of Volume 2. We’ve met TV teams coming to film a report on the IPCC reports’ errors, who were astonished when they held one of the heavy volumes in hand, having never even seen it. They told us frankly that they had no way to make their own judgment; they could only report what they were being told about it. And there are well-organized lobby forces with proper PR skills that make sure these journalists are being told the “right” story. That explains why some media stories about what is supposedly said in the IPCC reports can easily be falsified simply by opening the report and reading. Unfortunately, as a broad-based volunteer effort with only minimal organizational structure the IPCC is not in a good position to rapidly counter misinformation.
One near-universal meme of the media stories on the Himalaya mistake was that this was “one of the most central predictions of the IPCC” – apparently in order to make the error look more serious than it was. However, this prediction does not appear in any of the IPCC Summaries for Policy Makers, nor in the Synthesis Report (which at least partly explains why it went unnoticed for years). None of the media reports that we saw properly explained that Volume 1 (which is where projections of physical climate changes belong) has an extensive and entirely valid discussion of glacier loss.”
Also: NASA scientists unveil their latest findings on our warming world: 2009 is tied as the second warmest year since modern recordkeeping began, and 2000-2009 is the hottest decade ever, read more.
A cold few months in parts of the world, combined with a campaign by the carbon lobby to discredit climate change science, perhaps doesn’t mean the world isn’t warming…
A new journal on global policy has been lunched off London School of Economics and the first issue (and hopefully future issues as well) is available online!
Global Policy is an innovative and interdisciplinary journal bringing together world class academics and leading practitioners to analyse both public and private solutions to global problems and issues. It focuses on understanding globally relevant risks and collective action problems; policy challenges that have global impact; and competing and converging discourses about global risks and policy responses. It also includes case studies of policy with clear lessons for other countries and regions; how policy responses, politics and institutions interrelate at the global level; and the conceptual, theoretical and methodological innovations needed to explain and develop policy in these areas.
In a TED speech that I really like Bill Gates offers a sober and rational approach to the climate challenge, kind of what you would expect a businessman of his caliber to do. In his presentation Bill first paints a picture of the challenge with a global perspective at it’s core; where are we? where are we going? where should we be going? and what do we have to do to change direction?
The population of our planet will increase, the services provided will increase (a small part of the earth’s population can reduce their consumption but population growth and poverty alleviation will lead to a big net increase), the amount of energy used to deliver each unit of service might go down a bit, but not enough to really turn the tide. What’s left is reducing to almost zero the greenhouse gases needed to produce each unit of energy, be it fuel for transportation or electricity for homes. In Bill’s words we need “Energy miracles”.
To create these energy miracles we need technological breakthroughs of historical proportions. It can definitely be done, but the question is if we can do it fast enough. We need to, and this is something I’ve been advocating for a long time, focus perhaps a bit less on limits and more on possibilities. More on how to enable the changes that’s needed than trying to force them through in the current framework. The truth is that making the transition to a zero-carbon global economy will be impossible without the technological breakthroughs that can alleviate poverty and sustain comfortable livelihoods in developed countries without emissions of greenhouse gases. We need to put the inventor, innovator and entrepreneur at center stage and put in place policies that propel them forward.
Funding RD&D is obviously important here, catalyzing private investments as well and not least making sure that the economical framework supports low-emission innovation, e.g. by introducing cap™ programs. Our approach must be based on the politics of possibilities rather than the politics of limits.
Today the international negotiations under the IPCC perhaps has a bit too much of the European “limits” perspective and too less of the American “possibilities” perspective, and absolutely too little of the global perspective which is rarely found anywhere.
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One energy miracle that’s been in the pipe for a looong time and which might finally be edging towards getting realized is fusion power. Read more (eng), (swe)
Given recent doubts amongst some people (not least reporters at FOX News) about global warming, fueled by the fact that this winter is really cold in some places (not in Canada though…), it’s obvious that elementary schools and the media should do a better job in educating people in basic scientific concepts. It’s not good enough if only university educated people can tell the difference between short term variation and long term trends. Here is a video on the weather issue and some science below.
I’m now working on a research paper on carbon markets and how a global system of interlinked markets can and should look like. It’s a fascinating topic and I just now found this in a speech from 2009 by the US commissioner for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Bart Chilton;
If we take a quick trip in the Wayback Machine to the origins of these [carbon cap and trade] markets in the 1990’s, it is obvious that the global market for carbon emissions has grown tremendously. In 2002, the World Bank estimated the volume of carbon emissions traded globally at 32 million metric tons with a value of approximately $100 million. For 2008, these values were 4.8 billion metric tons, and a total dollar value of $126 billion. What does all that mean? It means that the market value of global carbon trades has experienced an average annual growth rate of about 329 percent since 2002! That is a cumulative increase of 126,000 percent! That’s not conjecture, it is a hard number fact that this trading has gone from $100 million to $126 billion.
Taking this a step further, we observe generally that in developed markets, futures trading is conservatively 10 times the size of the cash market for many commodities and can even be as great as 30 times that of the cash market for certain financial products. Even with the conservative assumption of 10 times the cash market, this would imply we are looking forward to a $2 trillion dollar futures market!
In terms of volume, a $2 trillion market would be the equivalent of anywhere from 60 to 180 million contracts. To give you an idea of the magnitude of this, in 2008, Light Sweet Crude Oil traded on NYMEX saw a volume of about 135 million contracts. Natural Gas experienced an annual volume of almost 39 million contracts, and all metals combined on NYMEX, about 53 million. So, we are talking about a really incredible potential for emission markets.
Make no mistake, these carbon markets can be the world’s largest commodity markets in a few short years.
I’ve started my new job as program director for environment at the FORES think tank in Stockholm this week and I’m really excited about the road ahead.
My responsibility will be to coordinate a project portfolio ranging from carbon trading conferences to high quality academic research together with renowned professors in Sweden and beyond.
I will also do research myself and be the editor of a series of policy papers and reports on environmental economic policy. The first material will be published not too far off in the future and I’ll of course upload the material here.
More about FORES:
Forum for Reforms, Entrepreneurship and Sustainability (FORES)
The green and liberal research institute
An independent research foundation dedicated to furthering entrepreneurship and sustainable development through liberal solutions to societal challenges brought on by accelerated globalisation and global warming.
FORES’ main activities is to initiate research projects and public debates that will result in concrete reform proposals in relevant policy areas such as:
Market solutions to environmental issues
Harnessing the positive potential of immigration
The role of civil society in entrepreneurship
The flexibility of labour markets
The protection of the civil rights of the individual
Modernising public services
In so doing FORES relies heavily on a vast network of academics, supported and coordinated by a small core of research managers and communication officers. Papers and books from the Institute are subjected to peer review processes. Researchers and reviewers are drawn from universities and colleges across Sweden, and some abroad. Studies are empirically oriented in order to be as policy relevant as possible.
The Institute makes full use of new media, with its webpage being the focal point for its communication and dissemination of research findings and public debates. FORES strives to be an interactive forum for all those interested in its activities.
To ensure the independence of the Institute it has been constituted as a foundation with a board of directors composed of academics, experienced former politicians, businesspeople and opinion leaders. The founders of FORES are the Swedish Centre Party, the Bertil Ohlin Institute and Studieförbundet Vuxenskolan.
Who, Where, Why? I'm a 27 years old swede political economist and entrepreneur trying to make things more sustainable. Here I write about stuff I do and think.
